Contract prices for DRAM chips are projected to fall by nearly 20% in the first quarter, as high inventories and weak demand couple with a downbeat mid- to long-term economic outlook, according to market research firm TrendForce's DRAMeXchange service.
The price decline — steeper than the 15% that the firm originally forecast — is expected to be lead by server DRAM chips.
Memory chip sales are widely expected to come falling back to earth this year after two consecutive boom years.
In December, contract pricing of DRAM held relatively steady at about $60 per 8GB module and $30 poor 4GB module, according to TrendForce (Taipei). However, the prices for both have already dropped below those thresholds in January, according to the firm. January contract pricing is expected to be around $55 or less per 8GB module, the firm said, and there is a strong possibility that prices will continue to fall in February and March.
According to TrendForce, the biggest problem in the DRAM market but the earlier arrival of the traditional slow season in the fourth quarter, which has resulted in higher inventories. In the short term, DRAM supply growth will remain higher than sales growth, so inventory levels will remain elevated — a condition that could persist for more than a year, the firm said.
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