Chip Sales Forecasts Continue to Rise

发布时间:2017-08-04 00:00
作者:Ameya360
来源:Dylan McGrath
阅读量:1149

  Market watchers keep raising their forecasts for 2017 semiconductor sales, and the number projections keep get bigger.

  This week, market research firm IC Insights Inc. officially upped its estimate for the 2017 semiconductor market, saying it expects sales to increase 16 percent to reach $419.1 billion.

  The revised forecast is among the most aggressive yet from industry watchers, who have been revising forecasts upward since a sudden market upturn began in the second half of last year. In the past few months, market research firm Gartner Inc. and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization have both dramatically increased their forecasts, each projecting growth of about 12 percent this year after earlier forecasting more moderate growth for the industry.

  To a large extent, the chip market is booming more than expected thanks to a sustained surge in memory chip pricing driven by tight supply. IC Insights said the DRAM market is now expected to grow by 55 percent this year, while the market for NAND flash is now expected to grow by 35 percent. In both cases, the sales increases are being driven almost entirely by price increases rather than unit growth, the first noted.

  The semiconductor industry now appears all but certain to enjoy its first double-digit percentage growth year since 2010, when sales expanded by 33 percent during a  recovery from the global financial crisis and the recession that followed. IC Insights said it would mark the fifth time since 2000 that the industry grew by 10 percent or more.

  IC Insights noted that the DRAM market has had a notable impact on total IC market growth in recent years. The DRAM market alone lifted the overall chip industry to growth in both 2013 and 2014, when DRAM growth of 32 percent and 34 percent, respectively, led to global chip sales increases of 3 percent in 2013 and 4 percent in 2014, the firm said.

  Total DRAM sales for the year are forecast to be $64.2 billion, IC Insights said, by far the largest single product category in the IC industry ahead of MPUs by about $17 billion.

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WSTS Raises Chip Sales Forecast
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Chip Sales Forecasts Lifted Again
  Market watchers are once again increasing their forecasts for 2017 semiconductor sales growth, as the red hot memory chip market shows no signs of cooling.  Both market research firm Gartner and independent semiconductor industry analyst Mike Cowan are now predicting that chip sales will top the $400 billion mark for the first time in 2017. Gartner is forecasting that chip sales will reach $411 billion this year, a 19.7 percent increase from last year, while Cowan's forecast calls for sales to rise 18.9 percent to reach $403 billion.  Price increases for memory chips, particularly DRAM and NAND flash, continue to set the pace. Gartner is now projecting that memory chip sales will rise 57 percent this year.  "A shortage of memory, and in particular DRAM, is driving semiconductor revenue higher," said Jon Erensen, a research director at Gartner, in a press statement. "Strength is spreading to other semiconductor categories as well with non-optical sensors, analog, discretes and image sensors all forecast to grow over 10 percent in 2017."  Forecasters, including the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, were already expecting the semiconductor industry to post its highest growth rate since the recession recovery year of 2010. But they have been compelled to revise market forecasts upward multiple times as the memory capacity shortage and other factors continue to push sales to new highs.  In August, sales topped the $35 billion mark for the first time,according to WSTS. Sales are now expected to top $400 billion for the first time this year after eclipsing $300 billion in 2010 and $200 billion in 2000.  Gartner expects chip sales to rise an additional 4 percent to reach $427.4 billion in 2018. The firm forecasts that the market will decline by 1 percent in 2019 as the memory market turns with leading vendors adding new supply.  Cowan's outlook for 2018 is slightly lower. He expects sales to increase by $13 billion, 3 percent next year, to reach $416 billion next year.
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