NAND Flash Manufacturers to Cut Capex by 2% YoY in 2019 Due to Worsening Oversupply

发布时间:2019-01-11 00:00
作者:Ameya360
来源:Trendforce
阅读量:1107

Experiencing an oversupply over the entire year of 2018, the global NAND Flash market continues to face excess capacity this year as the demand outlook for notebooks, smartphones, servers and other end products remains weak, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. NAND Flash manufacturers have slowed down the capacity expansion by cutting capex in 2019, aiming to moderate the oversupply by limiting the bit output growth.

NAND Flash Manufacturers to Cut Capex by 2% YoY in 2019 Due to Worsening Oversupply

South Korean manufacturers have taken initiatives to cut their NAND Flash capex due to the worsening oversupply in 2018, says DRAMeXchange. Even though the total capex in the whole NAND Flash industry has been cut by nearly 10%, the oversupply has continued. Looking ahead to 2019, U.S.-based manufacturers would also lower their semiconductor capex, and the total capex in the global NAND Flash industry is expected to be $22 billion, about 2% YoY lower than in 2018.

Influenced by the adjustments in capacity expansion, 92/96-layer 3D NAND products would only account for about 32% of the industry’s total output by the end of 2019, while the portion of 64/72-layer products remains over 50%, although the major manufacturers have entered the mass production of 92/96-layer 3D NAND since the fourth quarter of 2018. As the manufacturers slow down capacity expansion and migration to advanced process, the bit output growth of NAND Flash is expected to be around 38% in 2019, significantly lower than over 45% in 2018.

As for the capacity adjustments of manufacturers, DRAMeXchange notes that Samsung’s NAND Flash bit output growth is expected to be around 35%, considering the following two factors. First, Samsung would continue to reduce its production capacity for 2D NAND. Second, the operating capacity would also decrease compared with the end of 2018, since the 92-layer process requires more space in the fab. The slowdown in bit output growth would have great impacts on the global NAND Flash production, because Samsung's share in the NAND Flash market is about 30%.

SK Hynix and Toshiba/Western Digital also have a chance to see smaller bit output growth. The two companies have respectively new M15 fab and Fab 6, but would also be affected by the production reduction plan or capacity transfer to previous-generation process. Therefore, DRAMeXchange has revised the forecast of their annual bit output growth to less than 50% and 35%, down from previous forecast of 50% and 40%, considering the weak demand outlook.

Micron's new fab in Singapore will not officially enter mass production until 2020, so the company’s wafer capacity per month in 2019 will remain flat when compared to 4Q18. Intel plans to reach a full load capacity in its Dalian fab, but does not have other capacity expansion plan. The joint bit output of Micron and Intel would grow by nearly 40% in 2019, noticeably lower than 45% in 2018.

In terms of the NAND Flash price trends for 2019, the quotes for various product lines would witness apparently steeper drop than DRAMeXchange’s previous forecasts, indicating the excess inventories faced by manufacturers. DRAMeXchange expects a quarterly decline of 20% in 1Q19, higher than previous forecast of 10%, and a further decline of nearly 15% QoQ in 2Q19. For 2H19, the price decline may be slightly moderated considering the coming of peak season, but prices would continue to fall by around 10% each quarter. It remains to be seen whether manufacturers are able to further limit their bit output growth. In sum, the average NAND Flash price would decrease by nearly a half in 2019, according to the calculation of DRAMeXchange.

(备注:文章来源于网络,信息仅供参考,不代表本网站观点,如有侵权请联系删除!)

在线留言询价

相关阅读
Contract Prices of NAND Flash Products to Drop Further in 1H19; Price Decline Would Reach 10% in 1Q19
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry in 2018 turned out to be higher than expected, as suppliers had steady yields of their 64-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, has remained sluggish due to the looming trade war between China and the U.S., the shortage of Intel CPUs, and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices, despite the year-end busy season.Looking ahead to the first half of 2019, NAND Flash manufacturers have tried to slow down their production capacity expansion, but the seasonal headwinds and high inventory levels would only intensify oversupply concerns in the market. Contract prices of NAND Flash products in 1Q19 are expected to drop further by around 10%.DRAMeXchange points out that the eMMC/UFS sector has seen a steeper price decline in 4Q18, since Chinese smartphone manufacturers attempt to consume inventories and adjust production plans by the end of the year. The inventory consumptions are expected to continue in 1Q19, so the contract prices of eMMC/UFS products would witness further fall of nearly 10%.As for the trend in the SSD market, DRAMeXchange expects Client SSD contract prices to fall by nearly 10% in 1Q19. The global notebook shipments for 1Q19 are estimated to decrease slightly by over 15% QoQ, the bit demand for SSD will grow more sluggish and prices will grow weaker, despite the increasing SSD adoption rate in the PC market and the memory content upgrades.Enterprise SSD market has become a battleground for all manufacturers as the demand for servers keeps growing, which will make the price competition more intense in 2019. For the first quarter of next year, the Enterprise SSD contract prices would also fall by more than 10% considering the seasonal headwinds.With regard to the demand in channel market, module makers have abundant supply this year, but as the NAND Flash prices continue to fall, module makers need to clear their inventories at the end of each month to cut loss. They even have to sell defective products to keep profitability, which is rather disruptive in the market. While major NAND Flash suppliers make a good profit this year, module makers are struggling with the worsening profitability. Looking ahead, the market situation is highly likely to remain tough for module makers in 1H19.
2018-12-18 00:00 阅读量:1103
Total NAND Flash Revenue Rose by Just 4.4% QoQ in 3Q18
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry increased steadily in 3Q18, as suppliers raised the yields of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, had yet to catch up with supply despite the year-end busy season. The shortage of Intel CPUs and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices have respectively stifled the demand growths related to notebook PCs and smartphones. Also, the US-China trade dispute has been a negative influence on the whole market. Because the NAND Flash market had been in oversupply since the start of 2018, contract prices of NAND Flash products in 3Q18 registered significant declines from the previous quarter, and the average price drop was 10-15%.“The market for NAND Flash is expected to remain in oversupply during 4Q18, with steeper price decline for various NAND Flash products,” says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh. Memory module makers and OEMs are now at the end of their preparation for the year-end holiday season in North America and Europe, so they are reluctant to extend their inventories now. In addition, the US-China trade dispute simmers, leading to weaker demand. Particularly, price competition is intensifying in the markets for Enterprise SSDs and NAND Flash wafers. NAND Flash suppliers are concentrating on Enterprise SSD market to retain gross margins and on wafer market for greater digestion of inventories.SamsungSamsung’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 rose by 2.1% QoQ to US$6.05 billion. Although demand was lower than anticipated for the busy season, Samsung maintained a QoQ growth of more than 20% in bit shipments because it has remained the dominant supplier of NAND Flash for flagship smartphones and recorded increasing shipments of its SSDs for PCs and servers. Nevertheless, falling prices across the market also resulted in a near 15% QoQ decline in Samsung’s ASP.Samsung’s consumer-grade SSDs (for the channel market) are presently using 3D NAND Flash made with the fifth-generation manufacturing process. The process will be progressively applied to the production of Client SSDs for PC-OEMs and UFS mobile solutions. Because the oversupply problem has grown to become more significant since the start of 2018, Samsung will slow down the pace of the process migration during 2019. This also means that the mainstream architecture in the NAND Flash market during 2019 will still be 64/72-layer 3D NAND.SK HynixSK Hynix’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 advanced by 6.0% QoQ to US$1.83 billion. SK Hynix gained from the seasonal growth in smartphone shipments and the steady growth of its SSD sales. As a result, its bit shipments for the quarter also grew by 19% QoQ. Still, SK Hynix posted a 10% QoQ decline in its ASP because the demand growth was smaller than anticipated and not enough to offset the effect of oversupply.SK Hynix continues to concentrate on product sales in the mobile storage market. Its shipments of mobile solutions that are 128GB or higher have expanded noticeably following the releases of smartphones with higher-end specifications (e.g. the new iPhone devices and Chinese branded smartphones featuring an all-screen front). The success in the mobile storage market has also sustained the growth of the supplier’s bit shipments. In the SSD market, SK Hynix has been focusing on the sales of products based on 72-layer 3D NAND Flash. Consequently, SSDs accounted for more than 20% of SK Hynix’s total bit shipments in 3Q18.ToshibaThe demand growth resulting from the traditional busy season and the release of the new iPhone devices enabled Toshiba’s bit shipments to increase by more than 20% QoQ in 3Q18. However, falling prices in the end market caused Toshiba’s ASP to drop by almost 15% QoQ in the same period. Taken together, Toshiba posted a small increase of 1.9% QoQ in its quarterly revenue, totaling US$3.2 billion.The recent survey of Toshiba’s capacity and technology plans shows that the share of 64-layer 3D NAND production in the supplier’s total output has already surpassed 70%, and more than 50% of the supplier’s total production capacity is devoted to 3D NAND Flash. Additional production capacity for Toshiba during 2019 will come from the expansion of its Fab 6. Considering the market oversupply and the maturity of the supplier’s technology, Fab 6 will primarily manufacture products based on 64-layer 3D NAND.Western DigitalWestern Digital increased its bit shipments by 28% QoQ in 3Q18. This impressive shipment growth was attributed to the supplier’s advantages in the retail and channel market as well as the strong sales of its economically priced SSDs. In the same quarter, Western Digital also began to ship its high-density UFS products. On the other hand, the supplier’s ASP fell by 16% QoQ because of the general price slump for NAND Flash products. Western Digital’s 3Q18 revenue came to US$2.534 billion, amounting to an increase of 7.0% QoQ.In response to the oversupply problem during 2018, Western Digital will be limiting its CAPEX for 2019 and will scale back its future capacity expansion efforts. Hence, Western Digital is expected to slow down slightly with respect to the capacity expansion and the development of 96-layer 3D NAND Flash in 1H19.MicronMicron’s bit shipments in 3Q18 surged by more than 25% QoQ owing to the busy season in the smartphone market and the increase in the sales of its SSDs. Nevertheless, Micron still exerts great influence over the channel market. And because of the steep price drops in the channel market, Micron’s ASP fell by nearly 15% QoQ in 3Q18. All things considered, the supplier’s revenue for the same quarter rose by 14.7% QoQ to US$2.23 billion.To improve its cost structure, Micron has been decreasing the shipment share of products for the channel market. The company’s primary aim in the SSD market is to release products featuring both the NVMe interface and QLC NAND Flash in order to meet the demand for high-density storage. In the mobile storage market, Micron is continuing its collaboration with Chinese suppliers and searching for more opportunities in that country. Micron also began making product shipments in China during 3Q18.IntelIn 3Q18, Intel’s bit shipments kept growing at a QoQ rate of more than 10% due to its long-term dominance in the Enterprise SSD market. Despite prices spiraling downward in the NAND Flash market, Intel was able to keep the decline of its ASP just slightly larger than 9% QoQ. Its revenue performance remained relatively constant from the previous quarter, totaling US$1.08 billion. On the other hand, Intel reached its peak profit for this year in the third quarter thanks to the cost reduction associated with the increased use of 64-layer 3D NAND Flash in its SSDs (over 50% of its total SSD shipments in 3Q18).The additional production capacity made available by the second-phase expansion of Intel’s Dalian fab came online in 3Q18, and will achieve full capacity in 1H19. In addition, Intel and Micron have terminated their cooperation in the field of non-volatile memory. Although Micron will be acquiring the remaining interest in IM Flash Technologies, Intel can still use the Lehi plant for the production of 3D XPoint until the end of 2020. After that, however, Intel is on its own in the development of the third-generation of 3D XPoint products, so Intel will likely set up in-house production for this type of memory in the future.
2018-11-20 00:00 阅读量:1154
Global NAND Flash Revenue Rose by 3.5% QoQ in 2Q18
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the global NAND Flash market has stayed in oversupply since the traditional slow season in 1Q18, resulting in an average drop of 15~20% in NAND Flash contract prices in 2Q18. On the other hand, NAND Flash bit shipments bounced back in 2Q18 as Chinese smartphone brands stocked up on high-density products.Looking ahead to 3Q18, there are noticeable signs that the demand growth will be limited despite the contributions from the traditional busy season. Shipments of mainstream consumer electronics products such as smartphones and notebooks during 3Q18 are not expected to increase significantly. Also, memory module makers will be carrying high levels of inventory. Therefore, DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh notes that the average selling prices of NAND Flash products are expected to drop further by nearly 10%.Yeh notes that the ASP drops are not totally negative news for the industry. While the persistent oversupply during 2Q18 inevitably led to a further decline in prices, mobile device manufacturers took the opportunity to raise the storage specifications of their devices. As the result, products of 128GB or higher capacity have reached a penetration rate of over 10%. In the second half of this year, Chinese smartphone makers such as OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi are expected to adopt uMCP actively, bringing the average content per box of mid-to-high-end smartphone models up to 256GB or even 512GB in 1H19.In the SSD market, the price reduction of NAND Flash would also improve the shipments of high-capacity (8TB, 16TB) applications for servers. The notebook market would see greater adoption of SSDs in computer systems, and the shares of those with 256/512GB SSDs would be expanding, up from current 128/256GB.SamsungThe increase in the density per device among Chinese branded smartphones and demand rebound in the server and data center market caused Samsung’s NAND Flash bit shipments to grow by 15% QoQ in 2Q18. However, Samsung’s NAND Flash ASP also suffered a drop of more than 10% QoQ on account of the general oversupply situation and the ongoing price decline for various products. The supplier’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue came to US$5.93 billion, showing a QoQ increase of 1.8%.SK HynixThe growth of SK Hynix’s bit shipments rebounded to 19% QoQ in 2Q18 due to returning demand from Chinese smartphone brands and strong SSD sales. Still, the general oversupply in the market caused the supplier’s ASP to drop by 9% QoQ. On the whole, SK Hynix’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 11.8% QoQ to US$1.73 billion. Furthermore, the demand related to the upcoming iPhone devices has started to contribute to SK Hynix’s bit shipments since the end of 2Q18. Also, SK Hynix’s 72-layer 3D NAND products are also gaining traction in the SSD market and are forecast to account for more than 50% of the supplier’s Enterprise SSD shipments by the end of this year.ToshibaThe demand recovery in the smartphone market and SSD sales also helped Toshiba in 2Q18. Although the supplier adjusted product shipments in response to the high inventories carried by memory module makers, its bit shipments for 2Q18 still grew by more than 10% QoQ. Toshiba’s ASP, however, registered a QoQ decline that slightly exceeded 5% due to falling contract prices for wafers, SSDs, and eMMC/UFS products. Given these developments, Toshiba’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue advanced by 3.3% QoQ in 2Q18 to US$3.14 billion.Western DigitalWestern Digital’s NAND Flash bit shipments climbed up by about 5% QoQ in 2Q18 because of sales gains in the SSD and retail markets. However, declining prices in the channel and SSD markets also resulted in a QoQ drop of 4% in ASP. Western Digital’s NAND Flash revenue totaled US$2.37 billion, up by 0.3% QoQ.At its latest conference call, Western Digital especially noted that it has been discussing with Toshiba about the future CAPEX plans in light of the recent market developments. Hence, there is a possibility that the Toshiba-Western Digital alliance will slow down the pace of capacity building to prevent the worsening of the oversupply situation. How this alliance proceeds with capacity expansion may influence other suppliers’ decisions in this area as well.MicronMicron’s sales of high-density products for the mobile application nearly doubled in 2Q18 thanks to smartphone brands upgrading their devices. This result also led to changes in Micron’s strategy – the company will focus more on increasing the shipment share of mobile memory solutions while scaling back the shipment shares of chips and wafers that go to the channel market. Micron posted stellar sales result in the SSD market as well. In addition to raising the sales of Enterprise SSDs, the supplier will be promoting QLC 3D-NAND SSDs to further boost its high-density product shipments. Micron’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 7.6% QoQ to US$1.94 billion.IntelIn 2Q18, Intel still maintained a QoQ growth of more than 15% in its NAND Flash bit shipments on account of the steady growth of its server SSD sales. However, a greater part of the 2Q18 server SSD shipments is made up of low-price products due to the imbalance in Intel’s product mix. This actually led to a QoQ drop surpassing 6% in the supplier’s NAND Flash ASP. Intel nevertheless kept its NAND Flash revenue above the US$1 billion mark in 2Q18, posting an increase of 6.8% QoQ to US$1.08 billion.Intel also continues to work on its 3D XPoint and will likely be its leading advocate after the split with Micron. However, getting more customers to adopt this technology will be much more difficult if there is no other partner willing to invest in it.
2018-08-17 00:00 阅读量:1242
Contract Prices in NAND Flash Market Will Keep Falling in 2H18 Due to Oversupply and Weak Seasonal Demand
The latest analysis on the NAND Flash market by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the ASP of NAND Flash will drop by around 10% QoQ respectively in 3Q18 and 4Q18. Although 3Q18 heralds the traditional peak season for the sales of consumer electronics, the growth of the end market demand has been weaker than anticipated. At the same time, the supply of 3D-NAND Flash continues to expand.DRAMeXchange points out that the main reason behind the falling prices is oversupply at various levels. First, the annual shipments for smartphones this year are expected to be just on par with last year’s. The replacement demand for smartphones has been sluggish due to the lack of differentiation among products in terms of hardware specifications. Second, notebook shipments were very strong in 1H18, so the seasonal shipment growth for notebooks in 2H18 will be lackluster compared with the growth in the year’s first half as the base period. Third, the competition is very intense in the server SSD market. Although demand for server systems is growing steadily, there is an oversupply of server SSDs because too many suppliers are engaging in this profitable segment. Finally, NAND Flash suppliers have raised their output forecasts as they have expanded their production capacity and improved the yield rates of their 64/72-layer 3D-NAND production. Given the above factors that have led to a persistent oversupply, contract prices of various NAND Flash products will remain weak through 2H18.Growth in bit demand for eMMC/UFS and SSD is expected as the price drop can raise memory density in end productsThe effects of the price decline are not all negative because lower NAND Flash prices can actually encourage device makers to raise the density (storage) specifications of their products. For instance, smartphone makers have expanded the storage of their flagship devices to 256/512GB. This in turn has led to the upgrade for models within the mid to high-range segment, from 32/64GB to 64/128GB. The increase in the NAND Flash density of smartphones will contribute significantly to the total NAND Flash bit consumption, which is estimated to grow by at least 40% YoY for 2018.The drop in SSD prices is also going to push the SSD adoption rate in the notebook market to exceed 50% for the first time before the end of 2018. Furthermore, the NAND Flash density of mainstream client-grade SSDs for PC-OEMs will increase to 256GB by the end of 2018. Looking ahead, the mainstream density specification of client-grade SSDs could advance to 512GB over the next two to three years. Likewise, NAND Flash and SSD suppliers are actively developing higher-density storage solutions for the server markets. The density growth of server SSDs is projected to become larger in 2019 with the market entry of the QLC 3D-NAND architecture.NAND Flash prices to keep falling in 1H19 as oversupply worsensSince the market outlook for the 2H18 has become more certain, DRAMeXchange now anticipates continuing price decline during the traditional slow season of 1H19. Because of the seasonal headwinds, shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks and tablets are fairly conservative for the first half of next year. On the supply side, Toshiba’s newly constructed Fab 6 in the Japanese city of Yokkaichi is scheduled to enter operation in 2019. Meanwhile, most suppliers are working to make the transition from the 64/72-layer architecture to the 96-layer. This ongoing technology migration is expected to increase the overall output and keep the market in oversupply.
2018-08-01 00:00 阅读量:1035
  • 一周热料
  • 紧缺物料秒杀
型号 品牌 询价
CDZVT2R20B ROHM Semiconductor
RB751G-40T2R ROHM Semiconductor
BD71847AMWV-E2 ROHM Semiconductor
MC33074DR2G onsemi
TL431ACLPR Texas Instruments
型号 品牌 抢购
STM32F429IGT6 STMicroelectronics
ESR03EZPJ151 ROHM Semiconductor
BP3621 ROHM Semiconductor
IPZ40N04S5L4R8ATMA1 Infineon Technologies
TPS63050YFFR Texas Instruments
BU33JA2MNVX-CTL ROHM Semiconductor
热门标签
ROHM
Aavid
Averlogic
开发板
SUSUMU
NXP
PCB
传感器
半导体
相关百科
关于我们
AMEYA360微信服务号 AMEYA360微信服务号
AMEYA360商城(www.ameya360.com)上线于2011年,现 有超过3500家优质供应商,收录600万种产品型号数据,100 多万种元器件库存可供选购,产品覆盖MCU+存储器+电源芯 片+IGBT+MOS管+运放+射频蓝牙+传感器+电阻电容电感+ 连接器等多个领域,平台主营业务涵盖电子元器件现货销售、 BOM配单及提供产品配套资料等,为广大客户提供一站式购 销服务。