NAND Prices Expected to Continue Rising

发布时间:2017-08-23 00:00
作者:Ameya360
来源:Dylan McGrath
阅读量:1107

  Average selling prices (ASPs) for NAND flash memory chips rose b 3 to 10 percent in the second quarter and are projected to continue rising through the third quarter, according to DRAMeXchange, a market research firm that tracks memory chip pricing.

  DRAMeXchange, which is a unit of Taiwan-based TrendForce, said it expects NAND suppliers to post excellent third quarter financial results thanks to slight increases in contract pricing for mobile products like universal flash storage (UFS) and eMMC and solid state drives.

  A tight supply of memory chips, particularly NAND and DRAM, is lifting the broader semiconductor industry to what is expected to be the best growth year since the recession recovery year of 2010, when chip sales grew by more than 30 percent. Market research firm IC Insights Inc. forecasts that NAND sales will rise 35 percent this year compared with 2016.

  Last week, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization become the latest semiconductor industry market watcher to revise upward its forecast for 2017 sales, saying it now expects chip sales to grow by 17 percent this year.

  Alan Chen, senior research manager at DRAMeXchange, said through a statement that suppliers that scaling limitations on planar NAND are pushing suppliers to shift to 3D NAND. This, transition, Chen said, has resulted in a substantial loss in production capacity, leading to tight supply and rising ASPs.

  "We expect supply to be under strain for the rest of 2017," Chen said. "Relief will come later in 2018, when the manufacturing of 64- and 72-layer 3D-NAND flash reaches maturity."

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NAND Flash Manufacturers to Cut Capex by 2% YoY in 2019 Due to Worsening Oversupply
Experiencing an oversupply over the entire year of 2018, the global NAND Flash market continues to face excess capacity this year as the demand outlook for notebooks, smartphones, servers and other end products remains weak, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. NAND Flash manufacturers have slowed down the capacity expansion by cutting capex in 2019, aiming to moderate the oversupply by limiting the bit output growth.South Korean manufacturers have taken initiatives to cut their NAND Flash capex due to the worsening oversupply in 2018, says DRAMeXchange. Even though the total capex in the whole NAND Flash industry has been cut by nearly 10%, the oversupply has continued. Looking ahead to 2019, U.S.-based manufacturers would also lower their semiconductor capex, and the total capex in the global NAND Flash industry is expected to be $22 billion, about 2% YoY lower than in 2018.Influenced by the adjustments in capacity expansion, 92/96-layer 3D NAND products would only account for about 32% of the industry’s total output by the end of 2019, while the portion of 64/72-layer products remains over 50%, although the major manufacturers have entered the mass production of 92/96-layer 3D NAND since the fourth quarter of 2018. As the manufacturers slow down capacity expansion and migration to advanced process, the bit output growth of NAND Flash is expected to be around 38% in 2019, significantly lower than over 45% in 2018.As for the capacity adjustments of manufacturers, DRAMeXchange notes that Samsung’s NAND Flash bit output growth is expected to be around 35%, considering the following two factors. First, Samsung would continue to reduce its production capacity for 2D NAND. Second, the operating capacity would also decrease compared with the end of 2018, since the 92-layer process requires more space in the fab. The slowdown in bit output growth would have great impacts on the global NAND Flash production, because Samsung's share in the NAND Flash market is about 30%.SK Hynix and Toshiba/Western Digital also have a chance to see smaller bit output growth. The two companies have respectively new M15 fab and Fab 6, but would also be affected by the production reduction plan or capacity transfer to previous-generation process. Therefore, DRAMeXchange has revised the forecast of their annual bit output growth to less than 50% and 35%, down from previous forecast of 50% and 40%, considering the weak demand outlook.Micron's new fab in Singapore will not officially enter mass production until 2020, so the company’s wafer capacity per month in 2019 will remain flat when compared to 4Q18. Intel plans to reach a full load capacity in its Dalian fab, but does not have other capacity expansion plan. The joint bit output of Micron and Intel would grow by nearly 40% in 2019, noticeably lower than 45% in 2018.In terms of the NAND Flash price trends for 2019, the quotes for various product lines would witness apparently steeper drop than DRAMeXchange’s previous forecasts, indicating the excess inventories faced by manufacturers. DRAMeXchange expects a quarterly decline of 20% in 1Q19, higher than previous forecast of 10%, and a further decline of nearly 15% QoQ in 2Q19. For 2H19, the price decline may be slightly moderated considering the coming of peak season, but prices would continue to fall by around 10% each quarter. It remains to be seen whether manufacturers are able to further limit their bit output growth. In sum, the average NAND Flash price would decrease by nearly a half in 2019, according to the calculation of DRAMeXchange.
2019-01-11 00:00 阅读量:1091
Contract Prices of NAND Flash Products to Drop Further in 1H19; Price Decline Would Reach 10% in 1Q19
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2018-12-18 00:00 阅读量:1088
Total NAND Flash Revenue Rose by Just 4.4% QoQ in 3Q18
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry increased steadily in 3Q18, as suppliers raised the yields of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, had yet to catch up with supply despite the year-end busy season. The shortage of Intel CPUs and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices have respectively stifled the demand growths related to notebook PCs and smartphones. Also, the US-China trade dispute has been a negative influence on the whole market. Because the NAND Flash market had been in oversupply since the start of 2018, contract prices of NAND Flash products in 3Q18 registered significant declines from the previous quarter, and the average price drop was 10-15%.“The market for NAND Flash is expected to remain in oversupply during 4Q18, with steeper price decline for various NAND Flash products,” says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh. 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However, falling prices in the end market caused Toshiba’s ASP to drop by almost 15% QoQ in the same period. Taken together, Toshiba posted a small increase of 1.9% QoQ in its quarterly revenue, totaling US$3.2 billion.The recent survey of Toshiba’s capacity and technology plans shows that the share of 64-layer 3D NAND production in the supplier’s total output has already surpassed 70%, and more than 50% of the supplier’s total production capacity is devoted to 3D NAND Flash. Additional production capacity for Toshiba during 2019 will come from the expansion of its Fab 6. Considering the market oversupply and the maturity of the supplier’s technology, Fab 6 will primarily manufacture products based on 64-layer 3D NAND.Western DigitalWestern Digital increased its bit shipments by 28% QoQ in 3Q18. This impressive shipment growth was attributed to the supplier’s advantages in the retail and channel market as well as the strong sales of its economically priced SSDs. In the same quarter, Western Digital also began to ship its high-density UFS products. On the other hand, the supplier’s ASP fell by 16% QoQ because of the general price slump for NAND Flash products. Western Digital’s 3Q18 revenue came to US$2.534 billion, amounting to an increase of 7.0% QoQ.In response to the oversupply problem during 2018, Western Digital will be limiting its CAPEX for 2019 and will scale back its future capacity expansion efforts. Hence, Western Digital is expected to slow down slightly with respect to the capacity expansion and the development of 96-layer 3D NAND Flash in 1H19.MicronMicron’s bit shipments in 3Q18 surged by more than 25% QoQ owing to the busy season in the smartphone market and the increase in the sales of its SSDs. Nevertheless, Micron still exerts great influence over the channel market. And because of the steep price drops in the channel market, Micron’s ASP fell by nearly 15% QoQ in 3Q18. All things considered, the supplier’s revenue for the same quarter rose by 14.7% QoQ to US$2.23 billion.To improve its cost structure, Micron has been decreasing the shipment share of products for the channel market. The company’s primary aim in the SSD market is to release products featuring both the NVMe interface and QLC NAND Flash in order to meet the demand for high-density storage. In the mobile storage market, Micron is continuing its collaboration with Chinese suppliers and searching for more opportunities in that country. Micron also began making product shipments in China during 3Q18.IntelIn 3Q18, Intel’s bit shipments kept growing at a QoQ rate of more than 10% due to its long-term dominance in the Enterprise SSD market. Despite prices spiraling downward in the NAND Flash market, Intel was able to keep the decline of its ASP just slightly larger than 9% QoQ. Its revenue performance remained relatively constant from the previous quarter, totaling US$1.08 billion. 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2018-11-20 00:00 阅读量:1138
Global NAND Flash Revenue Rose by 3.5% QoQ in 2Q18
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the global NAND Flash market has stayed in oversupply since the traditional slow season in 1Q18, resulting in an average drop of 15~20% in NAND Flash contract prices in 2Q18. On the other hand, NAND Flash bit shipments bounced back in 2Q18 as Chinese smartphone brands stocked up on high-density products.Looking ahead to 3Q18, there are noticeable signs that the demand growth will be limited despite the contributions from the traditional busy season. Shipments of mainstream consumer electronics products such as smartphones and notebooks during 3Q18 are not expected to increase significantly. Also, memory module makers will be carrying high levels of inventory. Therefore, DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh notes that the average selling prices of NAND Flash products are expected to drop further by nearly 10%.Yeh notes that the ASP drops are not totally negative news for the industry. While the persistent oversupply during 2Q18 inevitably led to a further decline in prices, mobile device manufacturers took the opportunity to raise the storage specifications of their devices. As the result, products of 128GB or higher capacity have reached a penetration rate of over 10%. In the second half of this year, Chinese smartphone makers such as OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi are expected to adopt uMCP actively, bringing the average content per box of mid-to-high-end smartphone models up to 256GB or even 512GB in 1H19.In the SSD market, the price reduction of NAND Flash would also improve the shipments of high-capacity (8TB, 16TB) applications for servers. The notebook market would see greater adoption of SSDs in computer systems, and the shares of those with 256/512GB SSDs would be expanding, up from current 128/256GB.SamsungThe increase in the density per device among Chinese branded smartphones and demand rebound in the server and data center market caused Samsung’s NAND Flash bit shipments to grow by 15% QoQ in 2Q18. However, Samsung’s NAND Flash ASP also suffered a drop of more than 10% QoQ on account of the general oversupply situation and the ongoing price decline for various products. The supplier’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue came to US$5.93 billion, showing a QoQ increase of 1.8%.SK HynixThe growth of SK Hynix’s bit shipments rebounded to 19% QoQ in 2Q18 due to returning demand from Chinese smartphone brands and strong SSD sales. Still, the general oversupply in the market caused the supplier’s ASP to drop by 9% QoQ. On the whole, SK Hynix’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 11.8% QoQ to US$1.73 billion. Furthermore, the demand related to the upcoming iPhone devices has started to contribute to SK Hynix’s bit shipments since the end of 2Q18. Also, SK Hynix’s 72-layer 3D NAND products are also gaining traction in the SSD market and are forecast to account for more than 50% of the supplier’s Enterprise SSD shipments by the end of this year.ToshibaThe demand recovery in the smartphone market and SSD sales also helped Toshiba in 2Q18. Although the supplier adjusted product shipments in response to the high inventories carried by memory module makers, its bit shipments for 2Q18 still grew by more than 10% QoQ. Toshiba’s ASP, however, registered a QoQ decline that slightly exceeded 5% due to falling contract prices for wafers, SSDs, and eMMC/UFS products. Given these developments, Toshiba’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue advanced by 3.3% QoQ in 2Q18 to US$3.14 billion.Western DigitalWestern Digital’s NAND Flash bit shipments climbed up by about 5% QoQ in 2Q18 because of sales gains in the SSD and retail markets. However, declining prices in the channel and SSD markets also resulted in a QoQ drop of 4% in ASP. Western Digital’s NAND Flash revenue totaled US$2.37 billion, up by 0.3% QoQ.At its latest conference call, Western Digital especially noted that it has been discussing with Toshiba about the future CAPEX plans in light of the recent market developments. Hence, there is a possibility that the Toshiba-Western Digital alliance will slow down the pace of capacity building to prevent the worsening of the oversupply situation. How this alliance proceeds with capacity expansion may influence other suppliers’ decisions in this area as well.MicronMicron’s sales of high-density products for the mobile application nearly doubled in 2Q18 thanks to smartphone brands upgrading their devices. This result also led to changes in Micron’s strategy – the company will focus more on increasing the shipment share of mobile memory solutions while scaling back the shipment shares of chips and wafers that go to the channel market. Micron posted stellar sales result in the SSD market as well. In addition to raising the sales of Enterprise SSDs, the supplier will be promoting QLC 3D-NAND SSDs to further boost its high-density product shipments. Micron’s 2Q18 NAND Flash revenue rose by 7.6% QoQ to US$1.94 billion.IntelIn 2Q18, Intel still maintained a QoQ growth of more than 15% in its NAND Flash bit shipments on account of the steady growth of its server SSD sales. However, a greater part of the 2Q18 server SSD shipments is made up of low-price products due to the imbalance in Intel’s product mix. This actually led to a QoQ drop surpassing 6% in the supplier’s NAND Flash ASP. Intel nevertheless kept its NAND Flash revenue above the US$1 billion mark in 2Q18, posting an increase of 6.8% QoQ to US$1.08 billion.Intel also continues to work on its 3D XPoint and will likely be its leading advocate after the split with Micron. However, getting more customers to adopt this technology will be much more difficult if there is no other partner willing to invest in it.
2018-08-17 00:00 阅读量:1224
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