Intel May Sit Out Race to EUV

　　A race is on to qualify advanced semiconductor process technologies using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, but Intel is said to be sitting on the sidelines.

　　ASML reported in July a backlog of 21 orders for the EUV systems which cost as much as $150 million each. The company is expected to take through 2019 to fill the orders. It announced in March its NXE:3400B as its first production-ready system.

　　“The biggest problem is getting more lenses, Zeiss doesn’t have capacity to supply more,” said G. Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of market watcher VLSI Research. Hutcheson expects eight or nine systems will be delivered this year.

　　After years of achingly slow development, the systems are now approaching production worthiness. In addition, demand from leading-edge chip makers has accelerated just as foundries realized they could use the systems more extensively at introduction than once believed.

　　“Everyone talked about using EUV on one or two mask layers coming in, but now its five, six or seven mask layers,” said Hutcheson.

　　He forecasts $1.482 billion will be spent on EUV this year, up from $1.036 billion last year and rising to $3 billion in 2019. Spending is “already a third of the level of the 193 equivalant,” he said of the comparison traditional argon fluoride steppers.

　　Samsung and TSMC are racing to announce some level of manufacturing with EUV next year. But Intel is said not to be ordering materials needed for EUV at the same rate, according to one source that asked not to be named.

　　The dynamic makes sense because Samsung and TSMC must compete for high-volume leading-edge business from customers such as Apple and Qualcomm, while Intel’s fledgling foundry operation does not.

　　Hutcheson and other sources contacted said they were not aware of any delay implementing EUV at Intel. The x86 giant itself declined to comment on its EUV timeline.

　　“We are committed to bringing EUV into production as soon as the technology is ready at an effective cost. The road to EUV lithography production is a long one. While there has been great progress, much work remains. It’s important that our industry partners and suppliers are engaged and pushing as hard as we are to meet the requirements for high volume manufacturing,” an Intel spokesman said via email.

　　In June Globalfoundries CTO Gary Patton said engineers still have to resolve several issues with EUV. Most importantly, defects in masks need to be reduced and protective pellicles for EUV wafers still need to be designed, he said.

　　“Intel’s probably not going to be the first to implement EUV, but they [initially] bought more EUV tools than anyone…[and] Intel will do a lot more pre-qualifications because they want the highest performing chips,” said Hutcheson. “I’m sure next year some people will announce manufacturing with EUV, but the ramp will really be in 2019,” he added.

　　“It’s just a balancing act in my opinion,” said Vivek Bakshi, who is updating a book he wrote on EUV and planning a workshop in November on the follow-on EUV system expected for use at 5-3 nm nodes.

　　“It doesn’t matter whether one is a year or six months earlier than another. If you look at the time it’s taken to get EUV developed, the starting time for production is in the noise. Over the next two to three years everyone at the leading edge will use it,” said Bakshi, noting Intel was among the first to start EUV development in the late 1990’s.

　　Intel continues to invest in capital equipment at traditional levels, with $12 billion in spending projected this year compared to $17 billion for Samsung and $10 billion for TSMC, said Hutcheson. Last year, Intel spent $9.5 billion, while Samsung and TSMC were at $11.5 and $10.2 billion, respectively. Globalfoundries is a distant fourth at $2.5-$2.8 billion a year over the last two years.

　　Samsung has been the biggest capex spender over the last few years as it ramps 3D NAND flash production, said Hutcheson. Likewise, a significant portion of Intel’s capex is going to bring up 3D NAND in Dalian, China and 3D XPoint memories in Lehi, Utah with Micron.

　　In the third quarter, there was a shortage of capacity in DRAM and NAND segments as well as among integrated device makers like Intel, Hutcheson said. “We think that will continue through this quarter,” he said.

　　“Intel is running flat out from what we see, while Samsung’s 3D NAND expansion is huge,” he added.